Jerome Powell has been the Chair of the Fed since 2018 and his current term as Chair is scheduled to end in May 2026 (Federal Reserve). However, President Trump has repeatedly voiced his frustration with Powell and the Fed (Politico, NPR, Yahoo [Reuters]). Whether the US president has the authority to fire the Chair of the Fed is a question of some debate (Yahoo [Bloomberg], USA Today, Axios). The question is only concerned with the president claiming to terminate the Chair of the Fed, so any subsequent appeals or judicial proceedings are immaterial. A putative termination as Chair, but not completely from the Board of Governors, will count. A social media post by the president alone must be corroborated by credible, open-source reporting to count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.