In FTC v. Meta Platforms (Facebook), will the trial court rule that Facebook violated federal antitrust law by acquiring Instagram and/or WhatsApp?

Started Apr 18, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 18, 2025 07:39PM UTC
Challenges

On 14 April 2025, the trial began of the FTC's case against Facebook over Facebook's acquisition of Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014, claiming that the acquisitions violated antitrust law (CNBC, NPR, BBC, Court Listener - FTC v. Facebook). If the court finds for the FTC as to one acquisition but not the other, the question will close "Yes." If the trial court has not released its decision before 31 December 2025, the closing date will be extended, and any appeals subsequent to findings by the court will be immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 18 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 14%
No 86%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 91
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.15288
3.
-0.112654
4.
-0.105746
5.
-0.096868

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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