When will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (Forces) of India execute a military strike within the territory of Pakistan, excluding Kashmiri territory?
Closed May 06, 2025 08:40PM UTC
On 22 April 2025, militants in Indian-administered Kashmir killed dozens of tourists in the worst attack in the region in years, with India resolving "that the perpetrators of the attack will be brought to justice and their sponsors held to account" (Al Jazeera, BBC, Indian Ministry of External Affairs). Indian Forces executing an attack in Pakistan-administered Kashmiri territory (i.e., Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan) will not count (Britannica - Azad Kashmir, Pakistan Ministry of Defence).
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The question closed "Between 1 May 2025 and 15 May 2025" with a closing date of 6 May 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 May 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 1 May 2025 and 15 May 2025 | 57% | |
| Between 16 May 2025 and 6 June 2025 | 13% | |
| Between 7 June 2025 and 5 July 2025 | 5% | |
| Not before 6 July 2025 | 25% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 32 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 87 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 87 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 155 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
