Foxes ask:

What will be the annualized, utilization-adjusted Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth rate for the US business sector in the third quarter of 2025?

Started Apr 25, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

TFP is a measure of economic efficiency that accounts for all factors of production (International Monetary Fund, Bureau of Labor Statistics, YouTube [BLS]). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, see "TFP Utilization-adj." under "Variable" in the table, as well as "Download latest dataset" for historical data, which can be found in the "quarterly" tab under the "dftp_util" column). As of the launch of this question, the annualized, utilization-adjusted TFP growth rate for the third quarter of 2024 was 0.20%. Please note that the chart on the page depicts the average TFP growth rate across four quarters, and the table below it shows values for only that quarter.

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The question closed "At least 0.00%, but lower than 2.00%" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than -6.00% 1%
At least -6.00%, but lower than -4.00% 1%
At least -4.00%, but lower than -2.00% 7%
At least -2.00%, but lower than 0.00% 38%
At least 0.00%, but lower than 2.00% 29%
At least 2.00%, but lower than 4.00% 21%
At least 4.00%, but lower than 6.00% 2%
6.00% or higher 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 13
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 37
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.053879
2.
-0.018283
3.
-0.015765
4.
-0.009009
5.
-0.007057

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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