Foxes ask:
What will be the annualized, utilization-adjusted Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth rate for the US business sector in the third quarter of 2025?
Closing Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
TFP is a measure of economic efficiency that accounts for all factors of production (International Monetary Fund, Bureau of Labor Statistics, YouTube [BLS]). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, see "TFP Utilization-adj." under "Variable" in the table, as well as "Download latest dataset" for historical data, which can be found in the "quarterly" tab under the "dftp_util" column). As of the launch of this question, the annualized, utilization-adjusted TFP growth rate for the third quarter of 2024 was 0.20%. Please note that the chart on the page depicts the average TFP growth rate across four quarters, and the table below it shows values for only that quarter.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower than -6.00% | 0.80% | 0% | -0.20% | -0.33% |
| At least -6.00%, but lower than -4.00% | 2.50% | 0% | -0.50% | -0.63% |
| At least -4.00%, but lower than -2.00% | 9.70% | 0% | -1.30% | -1.55% |
| At least -2.00%, but lower than 0.00% | 45.30% | 0% | +6.30% | +9.55% |
| At least 0.00%, but lower than 2.00% | 32.70% | 0% | -3.30% | -3.05% |
| At least 2.00%, but lower than 4.00% | 7.10% | 0% | -0.90% | -2.78% |
| At least 4.00%, but lower than 6.00% | 1.40% | 0% | +0.40% | -0.98% |
| 6.00% or higher | 0.50% | 0% | -0.50% | -0.25% |