Foxes ask:
What will be the average utilization-adjusted Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth rate for the US business sector in 2025?
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
TFP is a measure of economic efficiency that accounts for all factors of production (International Monetary Fund, Bureau of Labor Statistics, YouTube [BLS]). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using chart data as provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, hover your cursor over the "TFP Utilization-adj" line on the chart). Historical data are available for download by clicking "Download latest dataset" (see "quarterly" tab and for a given year, take the average of the 4 quarterly values under the “dftp_util” column). As of the launch of this question, the utilization-adjusted TFP growth rate for 2023 was 1.92% (which is the average of -3.66, 3.53, 1.92, and 5.90 in the data). Please note that the chart on the page depicts the average TFP growth rate across four quarters, and the table below it shows values for only that quarter.
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Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
---|---|---|---|---|
Lower than -6.00% | 1.00% | 0% | 0% | -0.33% |
At least -6.00%, but lower than -4.00% | 2.75% | 0% | 0% | -0.75% |
At least -4.00%, but lower than -2.00% | 19.13% | 0% | 0% | +1.96% |
At least -2.00%, but lower than 0.00% | 47.00% | 0% | 0% | +7.67% |
At least 0.00%, but lower than 2.00% | 21.88% | 0% | 0% | -5.79% |
At least 2.00%, but lower than 4.00% | 6.00% | 0% | 0% | -2.00% |
At least 4.00%, but lower than 6.00% | 1.63% | 0% | 0% | -0.54% |
6.00% or higher | 0.63% | 0% | 0% | -0.20% |