At close of business on 7 August 2025, will the most recently announced Bank of England (BoE) "Bank Rate" be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 19 June 2025?

Started Apr 25, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 07, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the Bank Rate, the interest paid to commercial banks that hold money with the BoE (Bank of England - Bank Rate). As of the launch of this question, the MPC's August 2025 monetary policy meeting announcement is scheduled for 7 August 2025, and its most recently announced Bank Rate was 4.50% (Bank of England - Monetary Policy Summary 20 March 2025, Bank of England - Monetary Policy Committee Calendar). If the BoE announces a range, the question will close using the midpoint of the stated range (e.g., an announced range of 2.00% and 2.25% would close based on 2.125%). The date the change will take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Lower" with a closing date of 7 August 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower 83%
Same 15%
Higher 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 112
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.41049
2.
-0.324095
3.
-0.2765
4.
-0.190432
5.
-0.129789

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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