When will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (Forces) of Pakistan execute a military strike within the territory of India, excluding Kashmiri territory?
Closed May 10, 2025 01:00AM UTC
After militants in Indian-administered Kashmir killed dozens of tourists in April 2025, India responded with air attacks in both Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir (BBC, Al Jazeera). Pakistan's prime minister called India's strikes an act of war (CNN). Pakistani Forces executing an attack in Indian-administered Kashmiri territory (i.e., Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh union territories) will not count (Britannica - Jammu and Kashmir, Britannica - Ladakh).
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The question closed "Before 14 May 2025" with a closing date of 9 May 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 14 May 2025 | 34% | |
| Between 14 May 2025 and 28 May 2025 | 18% | |
| Between 29 May 2025 and 19 June 2025 | 8% | |
| Between 20 June 2025 and 18 July 2025 | 8% | |
| Not before 19 July 2025 | 32% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 24 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 87 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 51 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 155 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
