The production and sales of NEVs in China have exploded in recent years (Yahoo [Reuters], Clean Technica). NEVs include plug-in hybrids, full-battery electric vehicles, and fuel-cell electric vehicles (Capital One). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) once reported for all of 2025 (CAAM - Production and Marketing [in Mandarin]). In 2024, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 11.582 million, and year-on-year increase of 39.7% (CAAM - December 2024 Information Conference, see slide 21 [in Mandarin]). A translation of the slide is attached below: 

This question is the shorter-term companion question of #4287. This question will be scored.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "At least 13.5 million, but fewer than 15.0 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.