How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold domestically in China in 2027?
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
The production and sales of NEVs in China have exploded in recent years (Yahoo [Reuters], Clean Technica). NEVs include plug-in hybrids, full-battery electric vehicles, and fuel-cell electric vehicles (Capital One). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) once reported for all of 2027 (CAAM - Production and Marketing [in Mandarin]). In 2024, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 11.582 million, and year-on-year increase of 39.7% (CAAM - December 2024 Information Conference, see slide 21 [in Mandarin]). A translation of the slide is attached below:
This question is the longer-term companion question of #4286. While your forecasts and comments will be reviewed in the future, they will not be scored.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 15.0 million | 16.80% | -0.40% | -0.40% | +15.05% |
| At least 15.0 million, but fewer than 18.5 million | 13.60% | -3.10% | -3.10% | +2.35% |
| At least 18.5 million, but fewer than 22.0 million | 14.80% | -1.90% | -1.90% | -3.95% |
| At least 22.0 million, but fewer than 25.5 million | 17.70% | +1.50% | +1.50% | -4.55% |
| At least 25.5 million, but fewer than 29.0 million | 18.10% | +2.70% | +2.70% | -10.40% |
| At least 29.0 million, but fewer than 32.5 million | 13.80% | +2.20% | +2.20% | +0.05% |
| At least 32.5 million, but fewer than 36.0 million | 3.50% | -0.50% | -0.50% | +1.50% |
| 36.0 million or more | 1.70% | -0.50% | -0.50% | -0.05% |