Waymo One, a subsidiary of Google's parent company, Alphabet, is a ride-hailing service that has begun to use fully autonomous vehicles for its service (Waymo.com, Waymo - Where You Can Go). The question will be suspended on 30 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data published by Waymo One and open-source reporting. As of the launch of this question, Waymo One was operating in four US metropolitan areas: Austin, TX, Los Angeles, CA, Phoenix, AZ, and San Francisco, CA (Waymo - FAQ, click the "+" sigh for the information). Service in Atlanta, GA, was expected to begin in the summer of 2025 (CNET). The commercial service must not involve backup drivers to count, and service must involve payment to count. Separate, noncontiguous zones in the same metropolitan area will not count as two or more. In the event of ambiguity as to where Waymo One is operating, metropolitan areas are as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), some of which overlap (e.g., San Francisco and Oakland). If a location is considered to be in two or more overlapping metropolitan areas, the area with the higher or highest civilian labor force as of December 2025 will be used (Bureau of Labor Statistics) For example, if Waymo expanded into Oakland, CA, it would be considered part of the "San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont,CA" metropolitan area-and the count would remain 4-instead of being part of a separate "Oakland-Fremont-Berkeley, CA" metropolitan area since the former has a higher civilian labor force. Waymo One making its operation available through a third party (e.g., Uber) in a metropolitan area will count.

This question is the shorter-term companion question of #4291. This question will be scored.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.