Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 January 2026, will the European Council vote to suspend Hungary's right to vote within the European Council?
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
As Hungary continues to complicate EU efforts to support Ukraine's fight against Russia, some leaders are calling for Hungary to be suspended from the European Council, the EU's highest political body (Guardian, Estonian Public Broadcasting, EU - European Council). The legal mechanism to suspend a member state is laid out in Article 7 of the Treaty of the European Union (European Council - Article 7, European Parliament - Ongoing Hearings re Hungary April 2024). The question will close upon the European Council voting to suspend Hungary's right to vote, irrespective of when the suspension will take effect.
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NOTE 27 May 2025: The question is concerned with the European Council voting to suspend Hungary's right to vote in the European Council, as in voting in the affirmative by qualified majority (see Article 7) to suspend Hungary's right to vote.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | |
| No | 94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 105 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 156 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 279 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 462 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |