Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2026, will the European Council vote to suspend Hungary's right to vote within the European Council?

Started May 19, 2025 03:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

As Hungary continues to complicate EU efforts to support Ukraine's fight against Russia, some leaders are calling for Hungary to be suspended from the European Council, the EU's highest political body (Guardian, Estonian Public Broadcasting, EU - European Council). The legal mechanism to suspend a member state is laid out in Article 7 of the Treaty of the European Union (European Council - Article 7, European Parliament - Ongoing Hearings re Hungary April 2024). The question will close upon the European Council voting to suspend Hungary's right to vote, irrespective of when the suspension will take effect.

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NOTE 27 May 2025: The question is concerned with the European Council voting to suspend Hungary's right to vote in the European Council, as in voting in the affirmative by qualified majority (see Article 7) to suspend Hungary's right to vote.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6%
No 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 105
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 279
Average for questions older than 6 months: 462
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.005394
3.
-0.005369
4.
-0.005369

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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