At close of business on 19 September 2025, will the most recently announced Bank of Japan (BOJ) "uncollateralized overnight call [interest] rate" be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 31 July 2025?

Started May 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 19, 2025 07:01AM UTC

As of the launch of this question, the BOJ's September 2025 monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 18-19 September 2025, and its most recently announced uncollateralized overnight call rate was "around 0.5 percent" (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy 1 May 2025, Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule, see links under "Date of MPM"). If the BOJ announces a range, the question will close using the midpoint of the stated range (e.g., an announced range of 0.0% and 0.1% would close based on 0.05%). Qualified statements on the interest rate (e.g., "around 0.25%") will count as though the statement were unqualified (i.e., "around 0.25%" will be treated simply as "0.25%"). Please note that in its 2025 statements, the BOJ explicitly referred to the "uncollateralized overnight call rate." However, this was referred to as the "short-term policy interest rate" as recently as its statement dated 23 January 2024 (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy 23 January 2024). The date the change will take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 19 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower 5%
Same 76%
Higher 19%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 54
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.148634
2.
-0.127561
3.
-0.060548
4.
-0.047245
5.
-0.044054

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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