The CFA Society Los Angeles asks
What percentage of U.S. equity funds will be outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index for the one-year period ending 30 June 2017?
Outcome will be determined according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices' SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2017 Scorecard, typically published in September. For the one-year period ending 30 June 2016, 90.20% of U.S. equity funds were outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index. The relevant figure for 2016 can be found on page 4 of the SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2016 Scorecard, Report 1, row 1 labeled "all domestic funds" (S&P Dow Jones Indices). Published reports can be found here.
*S&P Dow Jones Indices is not affiliated with Good Judgment Open or the CFA Society L.A. Finance & Economics forecasting challenge.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on what will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 29 December 2017 or on whether the Federal Open Market Committee will decide to raise the interest rate on excess reserve balances at or before its scheduled September 2017 meeting.