Started Mar 14, 2017 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC (2 months ago)

The CFA Society Los Angeles asks

What percentage of U.S. equity funds will be outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index for the one-year period ending 30 June 2017?

Outcome will be determined according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices' SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2017 Scorecard, typically published in September. For the one-year period ending 30 June 2016, 90.20% of U.S. equity funds were outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index. The relevant figure for 2016 can be found on page 4 of the SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2016 Scorecard, Report 1, row 1 labeled "all domestic funds" (S&P Dow Jones Indices). Published reports can be found here.

*S&P Dow Jones Indices is not affiliated with Good Judgment Open or the CFA Society L.A. Finance & Economics forecasting challenge.

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Name Probability
Less than 50% 0%
Between 50% and 70%, inclusive 20%
More than 70% but less than 90% 70%
90% or more 10%

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