What will be the average monthly change in US total nonfarm private payrolls in the third quarter of 2025, according to ADP?
Closed Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The payroll processing firm Automatic Data Processing (ADP) releases a closely watched private sector jobs report each month (ADP, Investopedia - ADP). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data from ADP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once data for September 2025 are first reported (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Change, Persons"). As of the launch of this question, the average monthly change in US total nonfarm private payrolls in the third quarter of 2024 was 138,666.7 [(42,000+180,000+194,000)/3].
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The question closed "At least 0, but lower than 50,000" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than -100,000 | 1% | |
| At least -100,000, but lower than -50,000 | 1% | |
| At least -50,000, but lower than 0 | 1% | |
| At least 0, but lower than 50,000 | 23% | |
| At least 50,000, but lower than 100,000 | 67% | |
| At least 100,000, but lower than 150,000 | 6% | |
| At least 150,000, but lower than 200,000 | 1% | |
| At least 200,000, but lower than 250,000 | 0% | |
| 250,000 or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 161 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
