Before 20 December 2025, will the International Criminal Court (ICC) issue an arrest warrant or warrants for any Israeli official for reasons related to actions in the West Bank?

Started May 30, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 20, 2025 08:01AM UTC

On 27 May 2025, the Wall Street Journal reported that the ICC was preparing to seek arrest warrants for National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich over their roles in expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank (MSN [Wall Street Journal]). Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the ICC who was leading the efforts regarding Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, went on leave on 16 May 2025 amid an investigation into sexual misconduct allegations made against him (Al Jazeera). A summons or summonses will not count (ICC, see under "Investigations"). Please note that the ICC is different than the International Court of Justice (ICJ) (CNN). For the purposes of this question, "official" means any military officer or civilian officeholder, and a former official who was an official at the time of alleged violations of the law will count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 December 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 10%
No 90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 107
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.180488
3.
-0.179125
4.
-0.178512
5.
-0.172635

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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