What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for November 2025?
Closed Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The US unemployment rate has remained near historic lows in early 2025 (CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS') official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released (FRED). As of the launch of this question, the unemployment rate for November 2024 was reported as 4.2%.
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The question closed "At least 4.5%, but less than 4.8%" with a closing date of 1 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.9% | 0% | |
| At least 3.9%, but less than 4.2% | 2% | |
| At least 4.2%, but less than 4.5% | 71% | |
| At least 4.5%, but less than 4.8% | 25% | |
| At least 4.8%, but less than 5.1% | 1% | |
| At least 5.1%, but less than 5.4% | 1% | |
| At least 5.4%, but less than 5.7% | 0% | |
| 5.7% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 33 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 116 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
