Before 1 January 2026, will the US Senate pass "reconciliation" legislation that includes a prohibition on Planned Parenthood from receiving payments from Medicaid?
Closed Jul 01, 2025 04:30PM UTC
On 22 May 2025, the US House of Representatives passed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" as part of a budgetary process known as reconciliation that exempts it from being subject to a filibuster in the Senate (Politico, Bipartisan Policy Center). Reconciliation is constrained by what is known as the Byrd Rule, which limits, among other things, "extraneous" provisions (Economic Policy Innovation Center). Included in that bill is a provision that would ban Medicaid payments for abortion providers like Planned Parenthood (Congress.gov - H.R.1 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, see SEC. 44126, Planned Parenthood, Christianity Daily). A similar provision was rejected by the Senate parliamentarian in 2017, though the Senate can overrule the parliamentarian (Politico, Punchbowl News). Any legislation passed by the Senate outside of the reconciliation process is immaterial. A prohibition of any duration will count, and any new provision of law that prohibits Medicaid payments to Planned Parenthood will count.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 31% | |
No | 69% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 17 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 120 | |
Number of Forecasts | 22 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 277 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |