Before 1 January 2026, will the US Senate pass "reconciliation" legislation that includes a prohibition on Planned Parenthood from receiving payments from Medicaid?

Started Jun 06, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2025 04:30PM UTC

On 22 May 2025, the US House of Representatives passed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" as part of a budgetary process known as reconciliation that exempts it from being subject to a filibuster in the Senate (Politico, Bipartisan Policy Center). Reconciliation is constrained by what is known as the Byrd Rule, which limits, among other things, "extraneous" provisions (Economic Policy Innovation Center). Included in that bill is a provision that would ban Medicaid payments for abortion providers like Planned Parenthood (Congress.gov - H.R.1 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, see SEC. 44126, Planned Parenthood, Christianity Daily). A similar provision was rejected by the Senate parliamentarian in 2017, though the Senate can overrule the parliamentarian (Politico, Punchbowl News). Any legislation passed by the Senate outside of the reconciliation process is immaterial. A prohibition of any duration will count, and any new provision of law that prohibits Medicaid payments to Planned Parenthood will count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 31%
No 69%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 120
Number of Forecasts 22
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 277
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.20462
2.
-1.0027
3.
-0.520428
4.
-0.4968
5.
-0.483636

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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