Before 1 January 2026, will the US Senate pass "reconciliation" legislation that includes a provision that would prevent courts from enforcing contempt citations for failure to comply with an injunction or temporary restraining order under specific circumstances?

Started Jun 06, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

On 22 May 2025, the US House of Representatives passed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" as part of a budgetary process known as reconciliation that exempts it from being subject to a filibuster in the Senate (Politico, Bipartisan Policy Center). Reconciliation is constrained by what is known as the Byrd Rule, which limits, among other things, "extraneous" provisions (Economic Policy Innovation Center). Included in that bill is a provision that would prohibit federal courts from enforcing "a contempt citation for failure to comply with an injunction or temporary restraining order if no security was given when the injunction" under certain circumstances (Congress.gov - H.R.1 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, see SEC. 70302, Yahoo [USA Today]). Whether the prohibition complies with the Byrd Rule is a matter of debate (Politico). Any legislation passed by the Senate outside of the reconciliation process is immaterial. The provision need not be permanent to count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 41
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001013
2.
-0.001013
3.
-0.001009
4.
-0.000972
5.
-0.000917

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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