Foxes ask:

Before 1 January 2026, will the US Senate pass "reconciliation" legislation that includes a moratorium on state and local enforcement of regulations regarding artificial intelligence?

Started Jun 06, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

On 22 May 2025, the US House of Representatives passed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" as part of a budgetary process known as reconciliation that exempts it from being subject to a filibuster in the Senate (Politico, Bipartisan Policy Center). Reconciliation is constrained by what is known as the Byrd Rule, which limits, among other things, "extraneous" provisions (Economic Policy Innovation Center). Included in that bill is a provision that would bar state and local governments from enforcing regulations on the development of artificial intelligence (Congress.gov - H.R.1 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, see SEC. 43201(c)). Whether the moratorium provision complies with the Byrd Rule is a matter of debate (Lawfare). Any legislation passed by the Senate outside of the reconciliation process is immaterial. A moratorium of any duration will count. A moratorium tied to the receipt of federal funding will count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 13.70% -0.50% -10.80%
No 86.30% +0.50% +10.80%

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