Before 1 January 2026, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to a putative act or acts of sabotage?

Started Jun 06, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

Reports of sabotage operations in Europe by Russia have further inflamed tensions on the continent (AP, Guardian, Politico). Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, states that any member can call for consultations when they believe they are under threat, while Article 5 covers collective defense in the event of an armed attack against a member (NATO - Article 4, NATO - Article 5). Article 4 was last invoked in February 2022 by several NATO member states in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (The Conversation).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 15.71% +0.14% +6.04%
No 84.29% -0.14% -6.04%

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