When will Israel publicly announce that a ceasefire covering the whole of Iran has begun?
Closed Jun 24, 2025 04:00AM UTC
Israel began an air campaign attacking Iran's nuclear and military capabilities on 12 June 2025, to which Iran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes (NPR, AP). Whether the ceasefire (i.e., a cessation of all hostilities) is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) will not count. Iran includes the internationally recognized territory, airspace, and territorial waters of the country. The ceasefire need not include putative Iranian forces outside of the internationally recognized territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Iran to count.
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The question closed "Between 23 June 2025 and 29 June 2025" with a closing date of 23 June 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 23 June 2025 | 0% | |
Between 23 June 2025 and 29 June 2025 | 39% | |
Between 30 June 2025 and 13 July 2025 | 10% | |
Between 14 July 2025 and 3 August 2025 | 15% | |
Not before 4 August 2025 | 36% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 46 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 120 | |
Number of Forecasts | 104 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 277 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |