When will Israel publicly announce that a ceasefire covering the whole of Iran has begun?

Started Jun 15, 2025 08:15PM UTC
Closed Jun 24, 2025 04:00AM UTC

Israel began an air campaign attacking Iran's nuclear and military capabilities on 12 June 2025, to which Iran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes (NPR, AP). Whether the ceasefire (i.e., a cessation of all hostilities) is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) will not count. Iran includes the internationally recognized territory, airspace, and territorial waters of the country. The ceasefire need not include putative Iranian forces outside of the internationally recognized territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Iran to count.

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The question closed "Between 23 June 2025 and 29 June 2025" with a closing date of 23 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 23 June 2025 0%
Between 23 June 2025 and 29 June 2025 39%
Between 30 June 2025 and 13 July 2025 10%
Between 14 July 2025 and 3 August 2025 15%
Not before 4 August 2025 36%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 120
Number of Forecasts 104
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 277
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.753156
2.
-0.637219
3.
-0.599859
4.
-0.560656
5.
-0.453469

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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