Before 22 August 2025, will Iran's national military forces attempt to execute a military strike within the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?
Closed Jun 23, 2025 04:40PM UTC
As Israel and Iran exchange fire, there are fears that other regional states could be drawn into the conflict (Guardian, Yahoo [SEMAFOR]). The GCC is a group of six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf (GCC). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike will be immaterial so long as either 1) the weapon detonates or discharges on or over GCC territory, or 2) the weapon is intercepted or destroyed while en route to GCC territory. A cyberattack alone will not count. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. Actions not executed by Iran's national military forces will not count, and Iranian proxy forces (e.g., Houthis, Kataib Hezbollah) in and of themselves are not considered part of Iranian national military forces. Public acknowledgment is not required, and the default evidentiary standard will be used, that being credible, open-source media reporting. Any strikes related to Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs will not count (UAE Embassy in the US).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 23 June 2025.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 33% | |
No | 67% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 31 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 120 | |
Number of Forecasts | 71 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 277 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |