Will the United States formally reopen its embassy in Damascus, Syria, before 20 September 2025?

Started Jun 20, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 20, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The US closed its embassy in Damascus in February 2012 when violence erupted marking the beginning of the Syrian civil war, but it has taken steps that may lead to the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with the new Syrian government (AP, PBS). The question will close upon the actual, formal reopening of the embassy, not merely an announced plan for reopening. The reopening of the embassy need not be in the previous embassy building, but it must be located in Damascus or the Damascus Countryside Governorate to count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 72
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 162
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.017157
3.
-0.016185
4.
-0.014989
5.
-0.014989

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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