What will be the Federal Reserve's median projection for real GDP change for 2026 in its September 2025 projection materials?
Closing Sep 17, 2025 07:01AM UTC
In the Federal Reserve's projection materials released on 18 June 2025, the median projection for real GDP change for 2026 (specifically, "percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated") was 1.6%, down from the 1.8% projection released in March 2025 (Federal Reserve - FOMC Projection Materials June 2025, see "Table 1," Yahoo). The question will be suspended on 16 September 2025 and the outcome determined using the next projection materials released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), expected on the second day of its two-day meeting scheduled for 16-17 September 2025 (Federal Reserve).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower than 1.3% | 4.11% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 1.3%, but less than 1.6% | 43.22% | +1.22% | +1.22% |
| 1.6% | 27.67% | -0.33% | -0.33% |
| Higher than 1.6%, but at most 1.9% | 20.00% | +0.67% | +1.78% |
| Higher than 1.9% | 5.00% | -1.56% | -2.67% |