When will UKRSIBBANK ATM in Khotin', Ukraine, be under Russian control, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Started Jul 11, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 22, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Russia has reportedly massed troops in the summer of 2025 for a renewed effort to make advances in Ukraine's Sumy Oblast (Yahoo [Kyiv Independent], ABC News, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is "вулиця Соборна, 55А, Khotin', Sumy Oblast, Ukraine, 42320", to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The site as displayed by ISW will control the resolution. "Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine," "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours," and "Assessed Russian Control" will count, but "Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine" will not count and "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" is immaterial. Whether the structure is damaged or destroyed is immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 22 November 2025" with a closing date of 22 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 24 August 2025 0%
Between 24 August 2025 and 7 October 2025 0%
Between 8 October 2025 and 21 November 2025 1%
Not before 22 November 2025 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 43
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 133
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.028644
2.
-0.027492
3.
-0.017467
4.
-0.015853
5.
-0.015203

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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