Before 22 November 2025, will the Kharkiv Regional State Administration building in Kharkiv, Ukraine, be under Russian control, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Started Jul 11, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 22, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The head of Ukraine's army warned in early July 2025 that new Russian offensives in Kharkiv Oblast were a growing threat (Yahoo [Kyiv Independent], Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is "Sumska St, 64, Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, 61002", to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The site as displayed by ISW will control the resolution. "Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine," "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours," and "Assessed Russian Control" will count, but "Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine" will not count and "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" is immaterial. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed is immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 22 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 77
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 131
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000767
2.
-0.000767
3.
-0.000767
5.
-0.000767

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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