Inflexible asks:
How will the Pierre Poilievre perform in the 2025 Canadian Battle River-Crowfoot by-election?
Closed Aug 18, 2025 07:01AM UTC
After Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre lost his parliament seat in Canada's April 2025 election, Alberta Conservative MP Damien Kurek resigned the seat he won by over 80% to give Poilievre an opportunity to run in a by-election (Yahoo [Canadian Press], Community Press). The election, scheduled for 18 August 2025, has been complicated by protesters filling the ballot with candidates in a practice that has caused delays in vote counting in the past (CBC, Elections Canada - List of candidates Battle River--Crowfoot (Alberta)).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Poilievre will win with 80% or more of the vote" with a closing date of 18 August 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Poilievre will not win the election | 1% | |
| Poilievre will win with less than 60% of the vote | 1% | |
| Poilievre will win with at least 60% but less than 80% of the vote | 60% | |
| Poilievre will win with 80% or more of the vote | 39% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 20 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 60 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
