At close of business on 19 December 2025, will the most recently announced Bank of Japan (BOJ) "uncollateralized overnight call [interest] rate" be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 30 October 2025?

Started Aug 01, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 19, 2025 08:01AM UTC

As of the launch of this question, the BOJ's December 2025 monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 18-19 December 2025, and its most recently announced uncollateralized overnight call rate was "around 0.5 percent" (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy 31 July 2025, Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule, see links under "Date of MPM"). If the BOJ announces a range, the question will close using the midpoint of the stated range (e.g., an announced range of 0.5% and 0.6% would close based on 0.55%). Qualified statements on the interest rate (e.g., "around 0.25%") will count as though the statement were unqualified (i.e., "around 0.25%" will be treated simply as "0.25%"). Please note that in its 2025 statements, the BOJ explicitly referred to the "uncollateralized overnight call rate." However, this was referred to as the "short-term policy interest rate" as recently as its statement dated 23 January 2024 (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy 23 January 2024). The date the change will take effect is immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Lower 10.60% -0.50% -0.50% 0%
Same 33.00% -31.00% -30.50% -21.50%
Higher 56.40% +31.50% +31.00% +21.50%

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