Before 1 July 2026, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Kim Davis as to overturning Obergefell v. Hodges, the Supreme Court case that effectively legalized gay marriage across the US?
Closed Nov 10, 2025 02:30PM UTC
Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk who refused to issue a marriage license to a gay couple in 2015, has been appealing a finding of liability surrounding that refusal (ABC News). Among assertions of protections under the First Amendment, Davis is also asking the Supreme Court to overturn Obergefell (SCOTUSblog, Davis v. Ermold - Petition for Writ of Certiorari, see (3) under "QUESTIONS PRESENTED"). The question is only concerned with whether the US Supreme Court will agree to hear the case as to overturning Obergefell, and the question will close "No" upon the issuance of an order either denying certiorari or granting the petition to the exclusion of Question (3) (Cornell - Certiorari). For example, in Hain Celestial Group v. Palmquist, the petitioner presented two questions in its petition for certiorari, but the Court only granted certiorari for one of the two questions presented (Hain Celestial Group v. Palmquist - Petition for Writ of Certiorari, see page "i," Supreme Court - Order List 28 April 2025, see 24-724 on page 1). If the Court reframes the question or questions presented to the exclusion of explicitly overturning Obergefell, the question will close "No."
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 10 November 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | |
| No | 60% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 29 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 60 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |