When will North Korea next detonate a nuclear device?

Started Aug 15, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 15, 2026 07:01AM UTC

While North Korea has ramped up missile tests and deployments in recent years, it hasn't detonated a nuclear device in several years as South Korea reportedly considers building its own nuclear deterrence (NBC News, US Naval Institute, Newsweek, CSIS). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a subcritical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion (National Nuclear Security Administration).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 14 December 2025 2.15% 0% +0.15% -0.85%
Between 14 December 2025 and 14 April 2026 4.35% 0% -0.65% -1.65%
Between 15 April 2026 and 14 August 2026 13.45% 0% -0.55% +0.45%
Not before 15 August 2026 80.05% 0% +1.05% +2.05%

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