Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board Member) before 1 January 2026?

Started Aug 21, 2025 01:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 26, 2025 12:02AM UTC

After the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) revealed that he made a criminal referral to the Justice Department regarding Board Member Lisa Cook and potential mortgage fraud, President Trump called for her to resign, which she subsequently rejected (Politico, ABC News, The Hill). Governor Cook's current term is scheduled to end in 2038 (Federal Reserve - Lisa Cook). For the purposes of this question, Cook will be considered to have ceased to be a Board Member if the US president purports to terminate her as a member. In that event, any appeals or judicial proceedings are immaterial. A social media post by the president alone must be corroborated by credible, open-source reporting to count (but would close as of the social media post).

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The question closed "Yes, by means of being terminated by the US president" with a closing date of 25 August 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, by means of being terminated by the US president 16%
Yes, by means other than being terminated by the US president 33%
No 52%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 36
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.09125
3.
-0.83125
4.
-0.43285
5.
-0.31125

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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