What will be the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (aka "Core") for December 2025?
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US and the measure preferred by the Federal Reserve (Investopedia - PCE, Federal Reserve - Inflation Target). The "core" PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was running higher than the full PCE in June 2025 (NBC News). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy for December 2024 was 2.86406%.
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| Possible Answer | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|
| Less than 1.700% | 0% |
| At least 1.700%, but less than 2.000% | 0% |
| At least 2.000%, but less than 2.300% | 0% |
| At least 2.300%, but less than 2.600% | 1% |
| At least 2.600%, but less than 2.900% | 33% |
| At least 2.900%, but less than 3.200% | 59% |
| At least 3.200%, but less than 3.500% | 8% |
| At least 3.500%, but less than 3.800% | 0% |
| At least 3.800%, but less than 4.200% | 0% |
| 4.200% or more | 0% |