What will be the average monthly change in US total nonfarm private payrolls in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to ADP?
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
The payroll processing firm Automatic Data Processing (ADP) releases a closely watched private sector jobs report each month (ADP, Investopedia - ADP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data from ADP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database once data for December 2025 are first reported (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Change, Persons"). As of the launch of this question, the average monthly change in US total nonfarm private payrolls in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 200,333.3 [(221,000+204,000+176,000)/3].
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The question closed "At least 0, but lower than 50,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than -100,000 | 0% | |
| At least -100,000, but lower than -50,000 | 3% | |
| At least -50,000, but lower than 0 | 57% | |
| At least 0, but lower than 50,000 | 32% | |
| At least 50,000, but lower than 100,000 | 5% | |
| At least 100,000, but lower than 150,000 | 2% | |
| At least 150,000, but lower than 200,000 | 1% | |
| At least 200,000, but lower than 250,000 | 0% | |
| 250,000 or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 126 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 361 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
