What will be the effective yield on below-investment-grade corporate debt on 31 December 2025?
Started
Aug 29, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2025 08:01AM UTC
"High-yield" bonds is a euphemism for "junk bonds," meaning debt that is rated below investment grade by major credit ratings agencies, which can be used as an indicator of financial market stress (Investopedia - High-Yield Bond, Investopedia - Investment Grade). The question will be suspended on 30 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 4.40% | 0% | -1.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% |
| At least 4.40%, but less than 5.20% | 3.00% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 5.20%, but less than 6.00% | 11.00% | 0% | 0% | -6.00% |
| At least 6.00%, but less than 6.80% | 59.00% | +2.00% | +2.00% | +4.00% |
| At least 6.80%, but less than 7.60% | 23.00% | 0% | 0% | +4.00% |
| At least 7.60%, but less than 8.40% | 3.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% |
| At least 8.40%, but less than 9.20% | 1.00% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 9.20%, but less than 10.00% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10.00% or more | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |