What will be the effective yield on below-investment-grade corporate debt on 31 December 2025?
Closed Dec 31, 2025 08:01AM UTC
"High-yield" bonds is a euphemism for "junk bonds," meaning debt that is rated below investment grade by major credit ratings agencies, which can be used as an indicator of financial market stress (Investopedia - High-Yield Bond, Investopedia - Investment Grade). The question will be suspended on 30 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED).
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The question closed "At least 6.00%, but less than 6.80%" with a closing date of 31 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 4.40% | 1% | |
| At least 4.40%, but less than 5.20% | 1% | |
| At least 5.20%, but less than 6.00% | 4% | |
| At least 6.00%, but less than 6.80% | 90% | |
| At least 6.80%, but less than 7.60% | 4% | |
| At least 7.60%, but less than 8.40% | 0% | |
| At least 8.40%, but less than 9.20% | 0% | |
| At least 9.20%, but less than 10.00% | 0% | |
| 10.00% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 32 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 105 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 361 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
