Foxes ask:

Between 29 August 2025 and 18 September 2025, will the next FOMC statement of a decision on a monetary policy action released from the Federal Reserve indicate that Lisa Cook voted on that action?

Started Aug 29, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 17, 2025 07:00AM UTC

On 25 August 2025, President Trump announced that he had fired Lisa Cook from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System "effective immediately" for cause related to an accusation of mortgage fraud (AP, Politico). Soon after, Cook responded that she would challenge Trump's action in court (CNBC). How Cook votes (i.e., for or against) is immaterial so long as the statement indicates that she voted. The question will be suspended on 16 September 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using statements as released by the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve). The question will close early upon Cook's resignation taking effect, Cook publicly announcing or acknowledging that she is no longer a member of the Board of Governors, or her death.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 17 September 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99%
No 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 27
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 69
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.059563
2.
-0.048611
3.
-0.044868
4.
-0.039758
5.
-0.016711

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username