Kinnaj asks:
Who will Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elect as its next president to replace Shigeru Ishiba?
Started
Sep 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 04, 2025 05:55AM UTC
Closed Oct 04, 2025 05:55AM UTC
Challenges
After Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation in the wake of a poor legislative election performance in July 2025, the LDP is set to pick a new leader for a second time in roughly one year (AP, Yahoo [Bloomberg], ABC News).
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The question closed "Sanae Takaichi" with a closing date of 3 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yoshimasa Hayashi | 5% | |
| Katsunobu Kato | 2% | |
| Takayuki Kobayashi | 2% | |
| Shinjiro Koizumi | 41% | |
| Toshimitsu Motegi | 15% | |
| Kono Taro | 2% | |
| Sanae Takaichi | 31% | |
| Someone else | 1% | |
| The LDP will not elect a new president before 2 November 2025 | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 15 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 36 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
