Will North Korea next detonate a nuclear device before 30 November 2025?

Started Sep 16, 2025 08:00AM UTC
Closed Nov 30, 2025 08:01AM UTC

While North Korea has ramped up missile tests and deployments in recent years, it has not detonated a nuclear device in several years as South Korea reportedly considers building its own nuclear deterrence (NBC News, US Naval Institute, Al Jazeera, CSIS). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a subcritical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion (National Nuclear Security Administration).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4%
No 96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 245
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113
Number of Forecasts 566
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003284
2.
-0.003284
4.
-0.003284
5.
-0.003284

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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