Will North Korea next detonate a nuclear device before 30 November 2025?
Closed Nov 30, 2025 08:01AM UTC
While North Korea has ramped up missile tests and deployments in recent years, it has not detonated a nuclear device in several years as South Korea reportedly considers building its own nuclear deterrence (NBC News, US Naval Institute, Al Jazeera, CSIS). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a subcritical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion (National Nuclear Security Administration).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 November 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | |
| No | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 245 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 566 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |