Will North Korea next detonate a nuclear device before 30 November 2025?

Started Sep 16, 2025 08:00AM UTC
Closing Nov 30, 2025 08:01AM UTC

While North Korea has ramped up missile tests and deployments in recent years, it has not detonated a nuclear device in several years as South Korea reportedly considers building its own nuclear deterrence (NBC News, US Naval Institute, Al Jazeera, CSIS). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a subcritical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion (National Nuclear Security Administration).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 5.00% -1.00% 0% -6.46%
No 95.00% +1.00% 0% +6.46%

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