The University Forecasting Challenge asks:
What will be the average monthly change in US total nonfarm private payrolls for September, October, and November 2025, according to ADP?
Closed Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The payroll processing firm Automatic Data Processing (ADP) releases a closely watched private sector jobs report each month (ADP, Investopedia - ADP). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 and the outcome determined using data from ADP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database once data for November 2025 are first reported (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Change, Persons"). As of the launch of this question, the average monthly change in US total nonfarm private payrolls for September, October, and November 2024 was 206,333.3 [(194,000+221,000+204,000)/3].
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The question closed "At least -40,000, but lower than 0" with a closing date of 1 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than -80,000 | 1% | |
| At least -80,000, but lower than -40,000 | 7% | |
| At least -40,000, but lower than 0 | 40% | |
| At least 0, but lower than 40,000 | 38% | |
| At least 40,000, but lower than 80,000 | 13% | |
| At least 80,000, but lower than 120,000 | 1% | |
| At least 120,000, but lower than 160,000 | 0% | |
| At least 160,000, but lower than 200,000 | 0% | |
| At least 200,000, but lower than 240,000 | 0% | |
| 240,000 or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 92 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
