sai_39 asks:
Before 19 September 2026, will Nicolás Maduro either flee Venezuela or cease to be its president?
Started
Sep 19, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 03, 2026 09:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 03, 2026 09:00AM UTC
The Trump administration has been raising pressure on the Maduro government in Venezuela, including doubling a reward for Maduro's arrest (BBC, The Hill, Newsweek). Whether or not Maduro has fled Venezuela will be determined using credible, open-source media reporting. The mere stripping of international recognition of the Maduro regime alone will not count.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 64% | |
| No | 36% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 102 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 133 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 242 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 360 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
