What will be the Federal Reserve's median projection for real GDP change for 2026 in its December 2025 projection materials?
Closed Dec 10, 2025 08:01AM UTC
In the Federal Reserve's projection materials released on 17 September 2025, the median projection for real GDP change for 2026 (specifically, "percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated") was 1.8%, up from the 1.6% projection released in June 2025 (Federal Reserve - FOMC Projection Materials September 2025, see "Table 1," Yahoo). The question will be suspended on 9 December 2025 and the outcome determined using the next projection materials released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), expected on the second day of its two-day meeting scheduled for 9-10 December 2025 (Federal Reserve).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Higher than 2.1%" with a closing date of 10 December 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 1.5% | 6% | |
| At least 1.5%, but less than 1.8% | 16% | |
| 1.8% | 28% | |
| Higher than 1.8%, but at most 2.1% | 46% | |
| Higher than 2.1% | 5% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 17 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 40 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 361 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
