What will be the Federal Reserve's median projection for real GDP change for 2026 in its December 2025 projection materials?
Closing Dec 10, 2025 08:01AM UTC
In the Federal Reserve's projection materials released on 17 September 2025, the median projection for real GDP change for 2026 (specifically, "percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated") was 1.8%, up from the 1.6% projection released in June 2025 (Federal Reserve - FOMC Projection Materials September 2025, see "Table 1," Yahoo). The question will be suspended on 9 December 2025 and the outcome determined using the next projection materials released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), expected on the second day of its two-day meeting scheduled for 9-10 December 2025 (Federal Reserve).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower than 1.5% | 8.80% | +0.90% | -4.10% | -1.90% |
| At least 1.5%, but less than 1.8% | 19.50% | +1.50% | -0.50% | +0.90% |
| 1.8% | 26.30% | +2.00% | +7.50% | +9.00% |
| Higher than 1.8%, but at most 2.1% | 40.30% | -3.50% | -2.00% | -7.20% |
| Higher than 2.1% | 5.10% | -0.90% | -0.90% | -0.80% |