At close of business on 23 January 2026, will the most recently announced Bank of Japan (BOJ) "uncollateralized overnight call [interest] rate" be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 19 December 2025?

Started Sep 19, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 23, 2026 08:01AM UTC

As of the launch of this question, the BOJ's January 2026 monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 22-23 January 2026, and its most recently announced uncollateralized overnight call rate was "around 0.5 percent" (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy 19 September 2025, Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule, see links under "Date of MPM"). If the BOJ announces a range, the question will close using the midpoint of the stated range (e.g., an announced range of 0.5% and 0.6% would close based on 0.55%). Qualified statements on the interest rate (e.g., "around 0.25%") will count as though the statement were unqualified (i.e., "around 0.25%" will be treated simply as "0.25%"). Please note that in its 2025 statements, the BOJ explicitly referred to the "uncollateralized overnight call rate." However, this was referred to as the "short-term policy interest rate" as recently as its statement dated 23 January 2024 (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy 23 January 2024). The date the change will take effect is immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Lower 7.90% 0% 0% -0.10%
Same 64.20% -2.00% -2.00% -8.30%
Higher 27.90% +2.00% +2.00% +8.40%

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