The University Forecasting Challenge asks:
What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 12 December 2025?
Started
Oct 03, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 12, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closed Dec 12, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 30 September 2025, the closing value was 6,688.46.
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The question closed "At least 6,825, but less than 7,050" with a closing date of 12 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 5,250 | 0% | |
| At least 5,250, but less than 5,475 | 0% | |
| At least 5,475, but less than 5,700 | 0% | |
| At least 5,700, but less than 5,925 | 0% | |
| At least 5,925, but less than 6,150 | 0% | |
| At least 6,150, but less than 6,375 | 0% | |
| At least 6,375, but less than 6,600 | 1% | |
| At least 6,600, but less than 6,825 | 14% | |
| At least 6,825, but less than 7,050 | 82% | |
| At least 7,050, but less than 7,275 | 3% | |
| At least 7,275, but less than 7,500 | 0% | |
| At least 7,500, but less than 7,725 | 0% | |
| 7,725 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 46 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 300 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 361 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
