Will a ceasefire announced or acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas be in effect throughout the whole Gaza Strip at any point on 15 November 2025 (local time)?
Closed Nov 14, 2025 08:01AM UTC
On 10 October 2025, a ceasefire began in Gaza, though for how long it will hold remains to be seen (BBC, CBS News). For the purposes of this question, "local time" means Palestinian Standard Time (Time.is, note that daylight savings time is scheduled to switch on 25 October 2025). Reports of a violation of a ceasefire in place alone will not count as an end to that ceasefire unless the end of the ceasefire is explicitly stated.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 14 November 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 74% | |
| No | 26% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 173 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 477 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
