Before 1 December 2025, will the US publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike against a ground target within the territory of Venezuela?

Started Oct 13, 2025 08:00AM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Tensions between the US and Venezuela have been rising as the US attacks Venezuelan boats in international waters that it states are used for drug smuggling (Newsweek, Al Jazeera, USA Today). Both the strike and acknowledgment must occur during the question's open period to count and will close upon the acknowledgment. Targets in territorial waters will not count, and "the territory of Venezuela" refers to the internationally recognized territory of Venezuela. Accidents, such as stray ordnance falling onto Venezuelan territory, will not count. Actions not executed by the US military will not count (e.g., CIA operations). A public acknowledgment that a strike has taken place is required, but whether that strike has been executed by the US military will be determined using both the public acknowledgment and credible, open-source reporting.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 8%
No 92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 224
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113
Number of Forecasts 794
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.116451
2.
-0.116451
3.
-0.116451
4.
-0.114096
5.
-0.114096

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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