adenosine asks:

Who will the Japanese Diet (i.e., parliament) choose to be Japan's next prime minister?

Started Oct 14, 2025 03:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 21, 2025 05:00AM UTC

Sanae Takaichi's status as the presumptive next prime minister of Japan was thrown into doubt when her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its coalition partner, Komeito, over concerns about corruption (AP). Other Japanese parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), are reportedly weighing options to back a single opposition candidate to prevent the next prime minister from being a member of the LDP (NHK World, Deutsche Welle, Gemini Group - Blog). As of the launch of this question, the Diet was due to elect a new prime minister on 21 October 2025 (Nippon). If the question has not resolved before 1 December 2025, the closing date will be extended. The parties listed with the names represent party affiliation as of launch, and whether party affiliation changes for a named candidate as of the resolution of this question is immaterial.

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The question closed "Sanae Takaichi (LDP)" with a closing date of 20 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yoshihiko Noda (CDP) 3%
Tetsuo Saito (Komeito) 3%
Sanae Takaichi (LDP) 79%
Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP or DPP) 5%
An LDP member other than Sanae Takaichi 7%
Someone else 3%
New elections will be called before the Diet chooses a new prime minister 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113
Number of Forecasts 35
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.007117
2.
-0.007117
3.
-0.007117
4.
-0.007117
5.
-0.002733

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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