Before 1 July 2026, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal of the Second Circuit's decision in Zherka v. Bondi that upheld a federal statute prohibiting him from possessing firearms due to his conviction for a non-violent felony?

Started Oct 22, 2025 04:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 20, 2026 02:30PM UTC
Challenges
Tags

Selim Zherka pleaded guilty to charges related to fraud in 2015 and completed his prison term in 2020, but he, as a convicted felon, is still barred by federal law from possessing a firearm (Lohud, Reason). Zherka lost at the district and circuit levels, and Zherka filed a petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court on 5 September 2025 (Second Circuit Decision, Supreme Court Docket - Zherka v. Bondi). The question is only concerned with whether the US Supreme Court will agree to hear the case, and the question will close "No" upon the issuance of an order either denying certiorari or granting the petition (Cornell - Certiorari). An order vacating the Second Circuit's decision and remanding again for further proceedings will count (e.g., Supreme Court - Order List 30 June 2022, see 21-1194 on page 2).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 January 2026.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 51%
No 49%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 12
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134
Number of Forecasts 22
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 362
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.675801
3.
-0.594134
4.
-0.440201
5.
-0.42617

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username