Before 1 July 2026, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal of the Second Circuit's decision in Zherka v. Bondi that upheld a federal statute prohibiting him from possessing firearms due to his conviction for a non-violent felony?
Closed Jan 20, 2026 02:30PM UTC
Selim Zherka pleaded guilty to charges related to fraud in 2015 and completed his prison term in 2020, but he, as a convicted felon, is still barred by federal law from possessing a firearm (Lohud, Reason). Zherka lost at the district and circuit levels, and Zherka filed a petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court on 5 September 2025 (Second Circuit Decision, Supreme Court Docket - Zherka v. Bondi). The question is only concerned with whether the US Supreme Court will agree to hear the case, and the question will close "No" upon the issuance of an order either denying certiorari or granting the petition (Cornell - Certiorari). An order vacating the Second Circuit's decision and remanding again for further proceedings will count (e.g., Supreme Court - Order List 30 June 2022, see 21-1194 on page 2).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | |
| No | 49% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 12 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 22 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 362 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |