When will the Kostyantynivka City Registry Office building (Костянтинівський міський відділ РАЦС) in Kostyantynivka, Ukraine, be under Russian control, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
Closing Feb 02, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Russia has continued to make incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast, and capturing the Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka may be a goal (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, ISW - Russian Campaign Assessment 19 October 2025). Kostyantynivka is sometimes transliterated as "Kostiantynivka." The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is "Vulytsya Teatralʹna, 5, Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 85105", to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The site as displayed by ISW will control the resolution. "Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine," "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours," and "Assessed Russian Control" will count, but "Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine" will not count and "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" is immaterial (see legend within the map field). If the named source changes the way it presents the data, further instructions will be provided. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed is immaterial.
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NOTE 10 November 2025: ISW has added a new classification. "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine" will not count.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 7 November 2025 | 0% | 0% | 0% | -3.60% |
| Between 7 November 2025 and 28 November 2025 | 0.80% | 0% | 0% | -9.70% |
| Between 29 November 2025 and 27 December 2025 | 12.30% | 0% | -0.80% | -3.20% |
| Between 28 December 2025 and 1 February 2026 | 15.20% | 0% | -5.00% | -0.40% |
| Not before 2 February 2026 | 71.70% | 0% | +5.80% | +16.90% |