The SOFR is a benchmark of overnight borrowing costs for which US Treasury securities are used as collateral, and SOFR correlates closely with the Fed's IORB (Investopedia, CME Group). The spread (i.e., difference) between the two is a measure of stress in the financial system (Saxo Bank, Federal Reserve - IORB FAQs, BNN Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED, shows both SOFR and IORB rates daily). On 16 October 2025, the SOFR was 4.30% and the IORB was 4.15%, meaning the SOFR exceeded the IORB by 0.15%.

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The question closed "Before 24 January 2026" with a closing date of 31 October 2025.

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