When will the US publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike against a ground target within the territory of Nigeria, Benin, Cameroon, Chad, or Niger?

Started Nov 07, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 25, 2025 11:00PM UTC

President Trump has asked the Pentagon to make plans for possible military actions in Nigeria against Islamist forces to protect the country's Christian population (France 24, BBC, Genocide Watch). Boko Haram and other groups have been behind violence in and around Nigeria for many years (Director of National Intelligence - Boko Haram). Both the strike and acknowledgment must occur during the question's open period to count and will close upon the acknowledgment. Targets in territorial waters will not count, and "territory" refers to the internationally recognized territory of those countries. Actions not executed by the US military will not count (e.g., CIA operations). A public acknowledgment that a strike has taken place is required, but whether that strike has been executed by the US military will be determined using both the public acknowledgment and credible, open-source reporting.

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The question closed "Before 6 February 2026" with a closing date of 25 December 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 6 February 2026 6%
Between 6 February 2026 and 7 May 2026 15%
Between 8 May 2026 and 6 August 2026 13%
Not before 7 August 2026 67%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 110
Number of Forecasts 56
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 255
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.411517
2.
-1.391586
3.
-1.077753
4.
-1.050273
5.
-0.811217

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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