When will the US publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike against a ground target within the territory of Nigeria, Benin, Cameroon, Chad, or Niger?

Started Nov 07, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 07, 2026 07:01AM UTC

President Trump has asked the Pentagon to make plans for possible military actions in Nigeria against Islamist forces to protect the country's Christian population (France 24, BBC, Genocide Watch). Boko Haram and other groups have been behind violence in and around Nigeria for many years (Director of National Intelligence - Boko Haram). Both the strike and acknowledgment must occur during the question's open period to count and will close upon the acknowledgment. Targets in territorial waters will not count, and "territory" refers to the internationally recognized territory of those countries. Actions not executed by the US military will not count (e.g., CIA operations). A public acknowledgment that a strike has taken place is required, but whether that strike has been executed by the US military will be determined using both the public acknowledgment and credible, open-source reporting.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Before 6 February 2026 11.00% -5.00% -3.00%
Between 6 February 2026 and 7 May 2026 8.00% +1.00% 0%
Between 8 May 2026 and 6 August 2026 8.00% 0% 0%
Not before 7 August 2026 73.00% +4.00% +3.00%

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